The 3C modelling for biodiversity under future climate project is part of the Australian government’s Regional Natural Resource Management Planning for Climate Change, Stream 2. The 3C study area comprised the East Coast, Central Slopes and Murray-Basin NRM cluster regions and was extended to include all of NSW, totalling approximately one quarter of the Australian continent (approx. 2M ha)(see Figure 1).

The 3C project evaluated the impacts of climate change on biodiversity up to 2050 and mapped where conservation actions will provide the greatest benefits. Impacts on 100 ecosystems were modelled for six alternative climate futures using a range of spatial-analytical approaches. Natural resource management agencies can now incorporate this information into their planning.

Novel methodologies were developed to integrate climate impacts with other key considerations – representation of distinct vegetation classes, vegetation condition and habitat connectivity – into a framework for evaluating scenarios in terms of overall biodiversity persistence; and for mapping the biodiversity benefits of applying conservation measures and revegetation across a region.

The 3C provides a big-picture perspective to natural resource management agencies (NRMs), the people who are well-placed to make decisions at a local scale. The 3C biodiversity evaluation warns of significant changes and general depletion of biodiversity in the region arising from climate change. Map products help NRMs to minimise climate impacts to biodiversity through their biodiversity conservation activities.