In this study we developed potential ‘best’ and ‘worst’ case climate change impact distribution models for future grazing using species distribution modelling software. MaxEnt predicts the probability that an area will be suitable for agricultural production based on changes in the climate variables most appropriate for each commodity.  We chose the most appropriate climatic variables based on consultations with farmers, industry, NRM representatives and published literature. We considered two Global Climate Models (GCM) under the current (baseline) climate and the A1FI emission scenario for 2025 and 2035 representing: 1) a ‘worst’ warmer and drier future (CSIRO Mk3.5) and 2) a ‘best’ cooler and wetter future (CSIRO MIROC-M). This study found that Agriculture in the Greater Sydney LLS Region will be impacted by climate change.

Grazing is predicted to shift and contract, predominantly to south west regions, but remains patchily suitable in some other areas.
Average annual temperature was the most important predictor for the grazing model.