Predicting changes in the distribution of a specialist folivore and its habitat in response to climate change : a koala case study. Summary of Christine Adams-Hosking et al (2012)


The aim of this study was to inform decisions about where, under climate change, to protect and restore critical food and habitat resources for the koala.

We developed species distribution models for the koala and five of its key eucalypt food trees using MaxEnt to predict the probability of an area as suitable for koalas using a range of future A1FI climate scenarios (CSIRO 2014) and identified areas with a higher probability of occurrence.

This case study identified future areas of potential overlap between koalas and their critical food and habitat provided by a selection of key eucalypt species, including many areas within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions.

We found that regions where they overlap move eastwards and become increasingly contracted and fragmented under the high emission scenarios used in this study. Implications for NRM conservation planning:

Proactively conserving and supplementing koala habitat are essential strategies for the long-term persistence of koalas.
A similar approach can be used to identify areas to best prioritise and invest in conservation efforts for the future survival of vulnerable species that are under increasing threats from climate change.


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Detailed Descriptions
Case Study
050211 - Wildlife and Habitat Management, 050101 - Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
Geographic and Temporal Extents
South East Queensland, Northern Rivers, Hawkesbury-Nepean, Hunter-Central Rivers, Burnett Mary, Fitzroy
Brigalow Belt South, South Eastern Queensland, Brigalow Belt North, Central Mackay Coast, Sydney Basin, NSW North Coast
Start 1990/01/01 Start text End 2070/01/01 End text
Attributions and Constraints
All rights reserved
The University of Queensland
Christine Hosking (Adams-Hosking), Morena Mills, Cath Lovelock
Christine Hosking, Morena Mills and Cath Lovelock (2014) Predicting changes in the distribution of a specialist folivore and its habitat in response to climate change : a koala case study. Summary of Christine Adams-Hosking et al (2012) Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland.
Dr Christine Hosking
2014/11/20