The aim of this study was to inform decisions about where, under climate change, to protect and restore critical food and habitat resources for the koala.

We developed species distribution models for the koala and five of its key eucalypt food trees using MaxEnt to predict the probability of an area as suitable for koalas using a range of future A1FI climate scenarios (CSIRO 2014) and identified areas with a higher probability of occurrence.

This case study identified future areas of potential overlap between koalas and their critical food and habitat provided by a selection of key eucalypt species, including many areas within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions.

We found that regions where they overlap move eastwards and become increasingly contracted and fragmented under the high emission scenarios used in this study. Implications for NRM conservation planning:

Proactively conserving and supplementing koala habitat are essential strategies for the long-term persistence of koalas.
A similar approach can be used to identify areas to best prioritise and invest in conservation efforts for the future survival of vulnerable species that are under increasing threats from climate change.