This report documents the key findings of the science component of the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Program (2011–2014). It describes new understanding of large-scale climate processes, variability and extremes in the western tropical Pacific (Figure 1.1), together with new projections for the 21st century based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5)-based global climate model (GCM) projections for individual countries. The projections are aligned with greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration scenarios and terminology adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 report; Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This new report supplements information from a previous report published jointly by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in 2011 as part of the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP), entitled: Climate change in the Pacific: Scientific assessment and new research – Volume 1: Regional Overview and Volume 2: Country reports.

Countries covered were Cook Islands, East Timor, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji Islands, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.

The full report and chapter downloads are provided as WCAG2 compliant accessible PDF documents,and are available via the Pacific Climate Change Portal. 

Link to the full report and chapters.