The South Pacific region is prone to significant tropical cyclone risk. This report supports improved understanding of the risks posed by tropical cyclone hazards (winds, floods, and storm surge) to key assets in Timor-Leste, under current and future climate scenarios. A clearer understanding of the current level of risk in financial terms – and the way that risk will change in the future – will aid decision makers in prioritising adaptation measures for issues such as land-use zoning, urban infrastructure planning, and ex-ante disaster planning.

The report was part of the Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment in the Pacific Region project, which compared both current and future tropical cyclone risk under climate change for 14 Pacific island countries and Timor-Leste. Outputs from 11 different Global Climate Models (GCMs) from two generations of model experiments, CMIP3 and CMIP5, were analysed to calculate projected financial losses from cyclone damages to buildings, infrastructure, and crops in each country, for mid-century and end of century.

The project contributed to the third phase of the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI), and was supported by the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Programme with co-financing from the Global Fund for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR). The project involved a collaboration between the Australian Government, Geoscience Australia (GA), and AIR Worldwide (AIR).

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