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Regional sea level projection - annual time series, 2006-2090 - 0.5 degree resolution
Sea level projections based on the CMIP5 climate models and the IPCC AR5 under 4 RCP scenarios for the western tropical Pacific. The data are presented in annual time steps between 2006 and 2090. Attributes recorded: - Latitude & Longitude (0.5 degree resolution); - Time; - Sea level change projection - lower bound (5%), metres; - Sea level change projection, metres; - Sea level change projection - upper bound (95%), metres; - Sea level change projection uncertainty, metres. Total size: 149MB. Format: NetCDF.
Lineage: Various global average sea-level projections are combined with regional distributions (associated with ocean density and circulation changes and land ice change, GIA) to produce this regional sea level project data set.
Credit: PCMDI for CMIP5, IPCC AR5 for global mean sea level projections, Mitrovica et al. for land ice fingerprints, and Kendall et al. for the GIA distribution. This data collection is a product is funded and supported by the Australian Government through the Pacific Australian Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Programme (PACCSAP). PACCSAP was funded by Department of Foreign Affairs & Trade, managed by the Department of the Environment and the science was delivered by the partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.
This output was produced as part of PACCSAP Project 1.4.1: Improving understanding of how climate change will affect sea level climate variability.
Project Description: There is significant uncertainty about global and regional sea level rise. This activity will build on the research undertaken during the PCCSP to improve estimates of regional sea level rise in the Pacific. Simulations of 20th century sea level rise will be compared with observations to better understand the factors affecting regional sea level rise. Revised projections of sea level rise in the 21st century will be derived from the new CMIP5 climate models. The impact of changes in mean sea level on extreme events will be assessed.
Access the dataset via the CSIRO Data Access Portal.